Cartoon: Looks like the forecast, from Chris Manno.
Long Range Forecasting
The Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP) Planning Tool is a graphical representation of the forecast probability of thunderstorms. The product identifies graphically where in the US thunderstorms are likely over the next 72 hours. It is intended to enhance the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). The CCFP is only valid out to 6 hours. This graphical product will use CCFP-style graphics, to facilitate ease of interpretation and use by those already familiar with the CCFP. The product is not a CCFP forecast (it is not forecasting the exact CCFP criteria), but intended to support the long range planning for CCFP type of constraints in the National Airspace System.
The ECFP planning tool has been developed in response to FAA and Industry needs in planning for weather hazards, specifically convection, one to two days in advance. To meet these planning needs, and to support CCFP planning beyond 6 hours, the ECFP is intended to provide traffic planners and collaborators a quick-look forecast of the greatest probability of convection/thunderstorms. By utilizing CCFP-style graphics, users familiar with CCFP can easily determine where traffic constraints are most likely to be realized over the next 3 days.
The ECFP is intended for FAA Traffic Managers at Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC), FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), airline and aviation industry dispatch and flight planners, and private weather vendors supporting airline/FAA.
This automated graphical forecast is created from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm guidance. Probability of Thunderstorm contours are depicted at 40, 60, and 80% probabilities, using CCFP-like shading. Hashed areas represent 40-59% probability, solid lined areas represent 60-79% probability, and solid blue filled areas represent greater than 80% probability.
The ECFP will be available 24/7. It will be updated around 01:00, 07:00, 13:00, and 19:00 UTC each day.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) contains NOAA storm forecasts for 1, 2, 3, and 4-8 day outlooks.
Current Day Forecasts
The Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) is a strategic forecast of convection to guide traffic managers in their system-wide approach to managing traffic. The CCFP consists of 3 elements: collaboration, forecasts and applications. The CCFP forecast suite is a set of 3 forecast maps with lead times of 4, 6 and 8 hours, updated every 2 hours. Release times, based on Eastern Local Time (ELT), are from 0300 ELT to 2300 ELT, whether on Standard Time or DST. The CCFP forecast is used by airline industry and FAA participants of the Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) NAS planning process lead by the Federal Aviation Administration’s Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC).